Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Gyeongju Citizen: Result & Stats

Gimpo Citizen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gyeongju Citizen

8/22/2020

K3 League · Round 13Gimpo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Gimpo Citizen53%

×Draw25%

Gyeongju Citizen22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimpo CitizenExpected goals in this matchGyeongju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.94

Gimpo Citizen

1.59

Gyeongju Citizen

0.94

Gimpo Citizen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

1.52

creates per match

0.83

1.04

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Gimpo Citizen

1.52

Gyeongju Citizen

0.83

allows per match

Gimpo Citizen

1.04

Gyeongju Citizen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimpo Citizen ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gimpo Citizen or draw

78%

Gimpo Citizen or Gyeongju Citizen

75%

Draw or Gyeongju Citizen

47%

Winning margin

Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+

28%

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals

80%

Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals

47%

Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals

21%

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

61%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

24%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)

70%

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimpo Citizen at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.52 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gimpo Citizen scores more

53%

level

25%

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

22%

Gimpo Citizen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gimpo Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff