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Gimpo Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 2 2026

Gimpo Citizen
Gimpo Citizen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
7/15/2023K League 2K League 2 · Round 21Gimpo Salter Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gimpo Citizen31%
×Draw26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimpo Citizen
1.19
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.44

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 36 away

creates per match

Gimpo Citizen
1.20
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.69

allows per match

Gimpo Citizen
1.19
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19

finishing

Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimpo Citizen ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gimpo Citizen or draw
57%
Gimpo Citizen or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
74%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
69%

Winning margin

Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+
13%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals
70%
Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals
33%
Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals
12%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
76%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
42%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)
42%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimpo Citizen at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 79 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.20 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.69 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gimpo Citizen scores more
31%
level
26%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
43%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Gimpo Citizen 2–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gimpo Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 in K League 2 on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Gimpo Salter Soccer Field in Gimpo.