Gimpo Citizen 2–3 Gangwon FC: Result & Stats

Gimpo Citizen

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Gangwon FC

5/24/2023

FA Cup · Round of 16Gimpo Salter Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gimpo Citizen46%

×Draw23%

Gangwon FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimpo CitizenExpected goals in this matchGangwon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.39

Gimpo Citizen

1.73

Gangwon FC

1.39

Gimpo Citizen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Gimpo Citizen

1.67

Gangwon FC

1.44

allows per match

Gimpo Citizen

1.33

Gangwon FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par

Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimpo Citizen ↓

Gangwon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gimpo Citizen or draw

69%

Gimpo Citizen or Gangwon FC

77%

Draw or Gangwon FC

54%

Winning margin

Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+

24%

Gangwon FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals

82%

Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals

52%

Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals

25%

Gangwon FC 1+ goals

75%

Gangwon FC 2+ goals

40%

Gangwon FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)

59%

Gangwon FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimpo Citizen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Gangwon FC away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.67 + Gangwon FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gangwon FC attack 1.44 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gimpo Citizen scores more

46%

level

23%

Gangwon FC scores more

31%

Gimpo Citizen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gimpo Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff