Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Cheonan City: Result & Stats

Gimpo Citizen

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cheonan City

4/16/2025

FA Cup · 3rd RoundGimpo Salter Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gimpo Citizen59%

×Draw20%

Cheonan City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimpo CitizenExpected goals in this matchCheonan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.33

Gimpo Citizen

2.33

Cheonan City

1.33

Gimpo Citizen creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Gimpo Citizen

1.67

Cheonan City

1.33

allows per match

Gimpo Citizen

1.33

Cheonan City

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimpo Citizen ↓

Cheonan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Gimpo Citizen or draw

79%

Gimpo Citizen or Cheonan City

80%

Draw or Cheonan City

41%

Winning margin

Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+

38%

Cheonan City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals

90%

Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals

67%

Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals

41%

Cheonan City 1+ goals

74%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

38%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)

74%

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimpo Citizen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Cheonan City away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.67 + Cheonan City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Cheonan City attack 1.33 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gimpo Citizen scores more

59%

level

20%

Cheonan City scores more

21%

Gimpo Citizen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gimpo Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff