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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torina
Torina
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Estadio El Malecón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega64%
×Draw21%
Torina15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.98
Torina
0.83

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 139% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 110 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Torina
1.21

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
85%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Torina
79%
Draw or Torina
36%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
39%
Torina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
86%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
59%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
31%
Torina 1+ goals
56%
Torina 2+ goals
20%
Torina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
81%
Torina (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

Torina attack 1.05 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
64%
level
21%
Torina scores more
15%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Gimnástica Torrelavega 2–0 Torina

Gimnástica Torrelavega beat Torina 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón in Torrelavega.