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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
CANC
00:00
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Estadio El Malecón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega73%
×Draw17%
Textil Escudo10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.33
Textil Escudo
0.74

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 215% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 56 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
90%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Textil Escudo
83%
Draw or Textil Escudo
27%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
49%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
90%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
67%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
41%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
52%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
17%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
88%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
73%
level
17%
Textil Escudo scores more
10%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gimnástica Torrelavega host Textil Escudo

March 15, 2020: Gimnástica Torrelavega take on Textil Escudo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gimnástica Torrelavega host Textil Escudo at Estadio El Malecón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.