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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Laredo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Laredo
Laredo
1/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Estadio El Malecón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega52%
×Draw23%
Laredo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.77
Laredo
1.13

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 57% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Laredo
1.65

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Laredo
0.78

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
76%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Laredo
77%
Draw or Laredo
48%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
29%
Laredo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
83%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
53%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
26%
Laredo 1+ goals
68%
Laredo 2+ goals
31%
Laredo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
68%
Laredo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Laredo away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Laredo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Laredo attack 1.65 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
52%
level
23%
Laredo scores more
24%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Laredo

Laredo beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón in Torrelavega.