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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Castro
Castro
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Estadio El Malecón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega67%
×Draw20%
Castro13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.11
Castro
0.81

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 160% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 96 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Castro
1.46

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
87%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Castro
80%
Draw or Castro
33%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
43%
Castro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
88%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
62%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
35%
Castro 1+ goals
56%
Castro 2+ goals
19%
Castro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
83%
Castro (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.11

Castro attack 1.02 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
67%
level
20%
Castro scores more
13%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Gimnástica Torrelavega 0–1 Castro

Castro beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón in Torrelavega.