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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
10/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Estadio El Malecón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega60%
×Draw21%
Atlético Albericia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.10
Atlético Albericia
1.09

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 93% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 108 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
81%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Atlético Albericia
79%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
40%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
37%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
88%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
62%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
35%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
76%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
60%
level
21%
Atlético Albericia scores more
19%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1 – 0 Atlético Albericia

Gimnástica Torrelavega beat Atlético Albericia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón in Torrelavega.