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Gimnástica Segoviana vs Zamora — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
2 – 0
Zamora
Zamora
8/27/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana57%
×Draw22%
Zamora21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.00
Zamora
1.13

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.75
Zamora
1.00

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.25
Zamora
2.25

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
79%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Zamora
78%
Draw or Zamora
43%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
34%
Zamora wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
86%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
59%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
32%
Zamora 1+ goals
68%
Zamora 2+ goals
31%
Zamora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
73%
Zamora (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.75 + Zamora defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zamora attack 1.00 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
57%
level
22%
Zamora scores more
21%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Gimnástica Segoviana 2–0 Zamora

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Zamora 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 27, 2022.