Gimnástica Segoviana 2–0 UD Santa Marta

Gimnástica Segoviana

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UD Santa Marta

Iván Sales 90'

Daniel Arribas 7'

9/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana66%

×Draw20%

UD Santa Marta14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.78

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.01

UD Santa Marta

0.78

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 158% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 115 away

2.52

creates per match

0.97

0.59

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.52

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

0.59

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

86%

Gimnástica Segoviana or UD Santa Marta

80%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

34%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

41%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

87%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

59%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

32%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

54%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

18%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

83%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.01

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

66%

level

20%

UD Santa Marta scores more

14%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Daniel Arribas

62'

Aarón Moreno← Martiña

63'

Diego Gómez← Dani Abad

73'

Domin Pérez← Daniel Arribas

75'

David Morante← Óscar Poveda

80'

Iván Sales← Dani Calleja

84'

Pablo Gonzalez← Dani Sánchez

90'

Gimnástica

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Arribas

Borrego

Manager: Manu González

63'▲Diego Gómez←▼Dani Abad

73'▲Domin Pérez←▼Daniel Arribas

80'▲Iván Sales←▼Dani Calleja

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

GómezPérezSales

Manager: Arturo Martín

62'▲Aarón Moreno←▼Martiña

75'▲David Morante←▼Óscar Poveda

84'▲Pablo Gonzalez←▼Dani Sánchez

UD Santa Marta substitutes

MorenoMoranteGonzalez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Gimnástica Segoviana 2–0 UD Santa Marta

Gimnástica Segoviana beat UD Santa Marta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 22, 2019.

Goals: Daniel Arribas (7'), Iván Sales (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.

Gimnástica Segoviana vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Gimnástica Segoviana 2–0 UD Santa Marta