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Gimnástica Segoviana vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tarazona
Tarazona
1/31/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana39%
×Draw28%
Tarazona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.22
Tarazona
1.10

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.26
Tarazona
0.84

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.37
Tarazona
1.18

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Tarazona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
67%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Tarazona
72%
Draw or Tarazona
61%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
17%
Tarazona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
70%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
34%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
12%
Tarazona 1+ goals
67%
Tarazona 2+ goals
30%
Tarazona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
54%
Tarazona (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Tarazona defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tarazona attack 0.84 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
39%
level
28%
Tarazona scores more
33%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Gimnástica Segoviana 0–1 Tarazona

Tarazona beat Gimnástica Segoviana 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.