Gimnástica Segoviana 2–2 Ponferradina

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ponferradina

Sergi Molina 90+1'

Davo 48'

Álvaro Ramón 69'

Ernesto Gómez 59'

9/1/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana33%

×Draw29%

Ponferradina38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.16

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.06

Ponferradina

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

1.37

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

Ponferradina

0.95

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.37

Ponferradina

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

62%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Ponferradina

71%

Draw or Ponferradina

67%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

13%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

65%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

29%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

9%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

69%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

32%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

46%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

33%

level

29%

Ponferradina scores more

38%

Ponferradina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Lozano

46'

Berlanga← Javi Borrego

48'

Davo

54'

Borja Fernández← Markel Lozano

59'

Ernesto Gómez

63'

I. Tellechea

69'

Álvaro Ramón

71'

Fernán Ferreiroa← Hugo Marcos

71'

Manu Olmedilla← Fer Llorente

73'

Yeray Cabanzón← Ernesto Gómez

76'

Borja Valle← Álex Mula

82'

Gabriel Palmero← Ignacio Tellechea

82'

Pedro Astray← Hugo Díaz

84'

Álvaro Bustos← Brais Abelenda

84'

M. Doué← José Luis Cortés

90+1'

Sergi Molina

Gimnástica

Ponferradina

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ramsés

46'▲Berlanga←▼Javi Borrego

71'▲Fernán Ferreiroa←▼Hugo Marcos

71'▲Manu Olmedilla←▼Fer Llorente

82'▲Gabriel Palmero←▼Ignacio Tellechea

82'▲Pedro Astray←▼Hugo Díaz

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

BerlangaFerreiroaOlmedillaPalmeroAstrayLópezOlivaSanzChangyiIbañesFelipe

Manager: Javi Rey

54'▲Borja Fernández←▼Markel Lozano

73'▲Yeray Cabanzón←▼Ernesto Gómez

76'▲Borja Valle←▼Álex Mula

84'▲Álvaro Bustos←▼Brais Abelenda

84'▲M. Doué←▼José Luis Cortés

Ponferradina substitutes

FernándezCabanzónValleBustosDouéCostaLópezJiménezAndújarSibilleJorrínJürgens