Gimnástica Segoviana 2–2 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Gimnastic

Abel Pascual 39'

Chupo Yubero 17'

Víctor Narro 13'

Marc Fernández 9'

5/17/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana37%

×Draw28%

Gimnastic35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.16

Gimnastic

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

0.89

1.37

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

Gimnastic

0.89

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.37

Gimnastic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

65%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Gimnastic

72%

Draw or Gimnastic

63%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

15%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

69%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

32%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

11%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

68%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

31%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

51%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

37%

level

28%

Gimnastic scores more

35%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

13'

17'

34'

39'

60'

David Juncà← Joan Oriol

64'

Álex Jiménez← Víctor Narro

64'

David Concha← Marc Fernández

65'

P. Domingo Ciuraneta

70'

U. Dufur

73'

O. Sanz

74'

Hugo Díaz← Fernán Ferreiroa

74'

Marcel Céspedes← Berlanga

75'

R. Torres

76'

M. Olmedilla

77'

Ignacio Tellechea← Manu Olmedilla

86'

Álex Maroto← Diego Gómez

89'

J. Borrego

89'

J. Borrego

89'

Antonio Leal← Unai Dufur

Gimnástica

Gimnastic

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fernández

Cortés

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ramsés

74'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Fernán Ferreiroa

74'▲Marcel Céspedes←▼Berlanga

77'▲Ignacio Tellechea←▼Manu Olmedilla

86'▲Álex Maroto←▼Diego Gómez

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

DíazCéspedesTellecheaMarotoLópezMarcosCarmonaAstrayPostigoIbañes

Manager: Luis César

60'▲David Juncà←▼Joan Oriol

64'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Víctor Narro

64'▲David Concha←▼Marc Fernández

89'▲Antonio Leal←▼Unai Dufur

Gimnastic substitutes

JuncàJiménezConchaLealGutiérrezVaróPujolPérezSubirats