Gimnástica Segoviana 3–2 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Andorra

Ignacio Tellechea 90+7'

Pedro Astray 90+5'

Fer Llorente 51'

Manu Nieto 81'

L. de León 63'

12/1/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana40%

×Draw28%

FC Andorra32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.10

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

FC Andorra

1.10

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.26

creates per match

0.84

1.37

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

FC Andorra

0.84

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.37

FC Andorra

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

68%

Gimnástica Segoviana or FC Andorra

72%

Draw or FC Andorra

60%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

18%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

72%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

36%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

13%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

67%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

30%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

55%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + FC Andorra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

FC Andorra attack 0.84 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

40%

level

28%

FC Andorra scores more

32%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. Trigueros

27'

J. Cerda

31'

L. Redondo

33'

H. Diaz

51'

Fer Llorente

61'

Álvaro Martín← Pau Casadesús

61'

C. Albanis← Josep Cerdà

61'

Erik Morán← Luismi Redondo

61'

L. de León← Pablo Trigueros

63'

L. de León

67'

Chupo

68'

Diego Gómez← Davo

68'

Fernán Ferreiroa← Hugo Díaz

69'

76'

Ignacio Tellechea← Hugo Marcos

76'

Manu Olmedilla← Juan de la Mata

76'

Pedro Astray← Javi Borrego

81'

Manu Nieto

88'

A. Ndiaye← C. Albanis

90+5'

Pedro Astray

90+7'

Ignacio Tellechea

Gimnástica

FC

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ramsés

68'▲Diego Gómez←▼Davo

68'▲Fernán Ferreiroa←▼Hugo Díaz

76'▲Ignacio Tellechea←▼Hugo Marcos

76'▲Manu Olmedilla←▼Juan de la Mata

76'▲Pedro Astray←▼Javi Borrego

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

GómezFerreiroaTellecheaOlmedillaAstrayHernandoFelipeChangyiIbañes

Manager: Ferran Costa

61'▲Álvaro Martín←▼Pau Casadesús

61'▲C. Albanis←▼Josep Cerdà

61'▲Erik Morán←▼Luismi Redondo

61'▲L. de León←▼Pablo Trigueros

88'▲A. Ndiaye←▼C. Albanis

FC Andorra substitutes

MartínAlbanisMoránLeónNdiayeAchhibaBogaFuentesArumíBombardóRatti