Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
2/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana71%
×Draw18%
Cultural Cebrereña11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.20
Cultural Cebrereña
0.73

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 201% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.52
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
0.59
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
89%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Cultural Cebrereña
82%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
29%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
47%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
89%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
64%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
37%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
52%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
17%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
87%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.20

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
71%
level
18%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
11%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Gimnástica Segoviana 2–1 Cultural Cebrereña

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Cultural Cebrereña 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.