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Gimnástica Segoviana vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bupolsa
Bupolsa
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana67%
×Draw21%
Bupolsa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.94
Bupolsa
0.70

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 177% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.52
Bupolsa
0.81

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
0.59
Bupolsa
1.35

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Bupolsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
87%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Bupolsa
79%
Draw or Bupolsa
33%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
41%
Bupolsa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
86%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
58%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
30%
Bupolsa 1+ goals
50%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
16%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
84%
Bupolsa (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
67%
level
21%
Bupolsa scores more
13%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnástica Segoviana 2 – 1 Bupolsa

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Bupolsa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.