Gimnástica Segoviana 1–1 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barakaldo

Diego Gómez 90+2'

Aritz Muguruza 9'

4/27/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana37%

×Draw27%

Barakaldo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.25

Barakaldo

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

1.08

1.37

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

Barakaldo

1.08

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.37

Barakaldo

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

64%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Barakaldo

73%

Draw or Barakaldo

63%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

16%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

71%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

36%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

13%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

71%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

35%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

51%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

37%

level

27%

Barakaldo scores more

36%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Aritz Muguruza

50'

Chupo

55'

Diego Gómez← Ignacio Tellechea

55'

Fernán Ferreiroa← Pedro Astray

57'

M. Artetxe

58'

E. Molina

59'

B. de Jesus

65'

Isuskiza← Urki Txoperena

65'

Luis Bilbao← Adrián Revilla

69'

Marcel Céspedes← Chupo Yubero

76'

Unai Buján← Beñat Domingo

82'

Hugo Díaz← Javi Borrego

83'

L. Bilbao

85'

D. Lopez

85'

Borja García← Álex Valiño

85'

Jesús← Julen Huidobro

90+2'

Diego Gómez

Gimnástica

Barakaldo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ramsés

55'▲Diego Gómez←▼Ignacio Tellechea

55'▲Fernán Ferreiroa←▼Pedro Astray

69'▲Marcel Céspedes←▼Chupo Yubero

82'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Javi Borrego

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

GómezFerreiroaCéspedesDíazMarotoOlivaMataOlmedilla

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

65'▲Isuskiza←▼Urki Txoperena

65'▲Luis Bilbao←▼Adrián Revilla

76'▲Unai Buján←▼Beñat Domingo

85'▲Borja García←▼Álex Valiño

85'▲Jesús←▼Julen Huidobro

Barakaldo substitutes

IsuskizaBilbaoBujánGarcíaJesúsUriarteSantiagoNaveiraPérez

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Barakaldo

Gimnástica Segoviana and Barakaldo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Aritz Muguruza (9'), Diego Gómez (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.

Gimnástica Segoviana vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Barakaldo