Gimnastic 2–2 Ucam Murcia: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ucam Murcia

Robert Simón 69'

Javi Ribelles 25'

Xemi 28', 9'

11/14/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnastic51%

×Draw26%

Ucam Murcia23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchUcam Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.93

Gimnastic

1.54

Ucam Murcia

0.93

Gimnastic creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

0.89

0.96

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.35

Ucam Murcia

0.89

allows per match

Gimnastic

0.96

Ucam Murcia

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Ucam Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

77%

Gimnastic or Ucam Murcia

74%

Draw or Ucam Murcia

49%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

27%

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

79%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

45%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

20%

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals

61%

Ucam Murcia 2+ goals

24%

Ucam Murcia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

69%

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Ucam Murcia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ucam Murcia attack 0.89 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gimnastic scores more

51%

level

26%

Ucam Murcia scores more

23%

Gimnastic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

14'

23'

25'

28'

31'

57'

Antonio Caballero← Tropi

60'

M. Farrando

60'

M. Farrando

61'

Admonio← Alberto

62'

Javier Bonilla← Javi Ribelles

69'

70'

76'

77'

79'

Pol Prats← Carlos Albarrán

84'

Pedro Del Campo← Pablo Fernández

86'

M. Abenza

Gimnastic

Ucam

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Raúl Agné

62'▲Javier Bonilla←▼Javi Ribelles

79'▲Pol Prats←▼Carlos Albarrán

84'▲Pedro Del Campo←▼Pablo Fernández

Gimnastic substitutes

BonillaPratsCampoHernándezL'KouchaJiménezSanzVenetikidisMartínBallesterosDomingoParra

Manager: Salva Ballesta

57'▲Antonio Caballero←▼Tropi

61'▲Admonio←▼Alberto

Ucam Murcia substitutes

CaballeroAdmonioRaigalGarridoMarongMartínezJaraAgirre