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Gimnastic vs Sanluqueño — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sanluqueño
Sanluqueño
3/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gimnastic49%
×Draw27%
Sanluqueño24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.40
Sanluqueño
0.88

Gimnastic creates 59% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Sanluqueño
0.80

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Sanluqueño
1.45

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Sanluqueño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
76%
Gimnastic or Sanluqueño
73%
Draw or Sanluqueño
51%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
24%
Sanluqueño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
75%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
41%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
17%
Sanluqueño 1+ goals
59%
Sanluqueño 2+ goals
22%
Sanluqueño 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
67%
Sanluqueño (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Sanluqueño away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Sanluqueño defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sanluqueño attack 0.80 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gimnastic scores more
49%
level
27%
Sanluqueño scores more
24%

Gimnastic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Gimnastic 3–3 Sanluqueño

Gimnastic and Sanluqueño drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona in Tarragona.