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Gimnastic vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
4/11/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gimnastic38%
×Draw29%
Real Murcia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.16
Real Murcia
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
67%
Gimnastic or Real Murcia
71%
Draw or Real Murcia
62%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
16%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
69%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
32%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
11%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
66%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
29%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
53%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gimnastic scores more
38%
level
29%
Real Murcia scores more
33%

Gimnastic at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Gimnastic 2–1 Real Murcia

Gimnastic beat Real Murcia 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona in Tarragona.