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Gimnastic vs Ourense CF — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
8/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic55%
×Draw26%
Ourense CF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.48
Ourense CF
0.72

Gimnastic creates 106% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.71
Ourense CF
0.74

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.71
Ourense CF
1.26

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
82%
Gimnastic or Ourense CF
74%
Draw or Ourense CF
45%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
29%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
77%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
43%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
19%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
51%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
16%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
75%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gimnastic scores more
55%
level
26%
Ourense CF scores more
18%

Gimnastic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Gimnastic 1–1 Ourense CF

Gimnastic and Ourense CF drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Costa Daurada in Tarragona.