Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gimnastic vs Llagostera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Llagostera
Llagostera
3/13/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnastic54%
×Draw27%
Llagostera20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.47
Llagostera
0.77

Gimnastic creates 91% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Llagostera
0.58

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Llagostera
1.58

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Llagostera+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Llagostera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
80%
Gimnastic or Llagostera
73%
Draw or Llagostera
46%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
27%
Llagostera wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
77%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
43%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
18%
Llagostera 1+ goals
54%
Llagostera 2+ goals
18%
Llagostera 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
73%
Llagostera (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Llagostera away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Llagostera defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Llagostera attack 0.58 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gimnastic scores more
54%
level
27%
Llagostera scores more
20%

Gimnastic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Llagostera

Gimnastic and Llagostera drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona in Tarragona.