Gimnastic 3–3 Elche: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Elche

L. Suárez 84'

N. Lozano 83' (OG)

I. Uche 79'

Josán Fernández 69'

Carlos Castro 49' (pen)

Xavi Torres 31'

5/26/2019

Segunda División · Round 40Nou Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gimnastic39%

×Draw28%

Elche33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.10

Gimnastic

1.21

Elche

1.10

Gimnastic creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 86 away

1.13

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.13

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Gimnastic

1.13

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

67%

Gimnastic or Elche

72%

Draw or Elche

61%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

17%

Elche wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

70%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

34%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

12%

Elche 1+ goals

67%

Elche 2+ goals

30%

Elche 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

54%

Elche (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.13 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Elche attack 1.07 + Gimnastic defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnastic scores more

39%

level

28%

Elche scores more

33%

Gimnastic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

I. Uche

Gimnastic · F

8.2

Match Events

31'

Xavi Torres↳ Iván Sánchez

49'

Carlos CastroPenalty

53'

Juan Cruz Álvaro Armada

59'

Juan Cruz Álvaro Armada

59'

Juan Cruz Álvaro Armada

64'

Javi Márquez← Josema Sánchez

65'

Borja Giner← Nacho Gil

67'

L. Suárez← Víctor Martínez

69'

Josán Fernández↳ Iván Sánchez

74'

Manuel Sánchez← Xavi Torres

78'

Sun Bernard← Pol Prats

79'

I. Uche

82'

N. Lozano← Gonzalo Verdú

83'

N. LozanoOwn goal

84'

87'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasticElche

Overview

42%Possession58%

22Total Shots9

11Corners2

16Fouls5

Shots

22Total Shots9

8On Target4

9Off Target3

5Blocked2

14Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

330Total Passes476

261Accurate Passes394

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls5

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Segunda División: Gimnastic 3–3 Elche

Gimnastic and Elche drew 3-3 in Segunda División on May 26, 2019.

Goals: Xavi Torres (31'), Carlos Castro (49' pen), Josán Fernández (69'), I. Uche (79'), N. Lozano (83' o.g.), L. Suárez (84').

Elche controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 22.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal in Tarragona.

Gimnastic vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Gimnastic 3–3 Elche