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Gimnastic vs Deportivo La Coruna — Segunda División 2018

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
9/30/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Nou Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gimnastic36%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.19
Deportivo La Coruna
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 85 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.23
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Gimnastic
1.27
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
63%
Gimnastic or Deportivo La Coruna
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
64%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
70%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
33%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
49%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.23 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Gimnastic defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gimnastic scores more
36%
level
28%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
37%

Deportivo La Coruna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna beat Gimnastic 3-1 in Segunda División on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal in Tarragona.