Gimnastic 5–3 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

5 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Cultural Leonesa

5/19/2018

Segunda División · Round 40Nou Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gimnastic43%

×Draw25%

Cultural Leonesa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Gimnastic

1.50

Cultural Leonesa

1.25

Gimnastic creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

1.23

creates per match

1.22

1.27

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.23

Cultural Leonesa

1.22

allows per match

Gimnastic

1.27

Cultural Leonesa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

68%

Gimnastic or Cultural Leonesa

75%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

57%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

21%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

78%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

44%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

19%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

71%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

36%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

58%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.23 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.22 + Gimnastic defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gimnastic scores more

43%

level

25%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

32%

Gimnastic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff