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Gimnastic vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
4/21/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic48%
×Draw26%
Celta de Vigo II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.50
Celta de Vigo II
1.02

Gimnastic creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 120 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.71
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.71
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
74%
Gimnastic or Celta de Vigo II
74%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
52%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
24%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
78%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
44%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
19%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
64%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
27%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
65%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gimnastic scores more
48%
level
26%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
26%

Gimnastic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Celta de Vigo II

Gimnastic beat Celta de Vigo II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Costa Daurada in Tarragona.