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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Douglas Haig — Torneo Federal A 2018

Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
9/10/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 22Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro48%
×Draw29%
Douglas Haig23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.26
Douglas Haig
0.77

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 64% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 113 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.45
Douglas Haig
0.91

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.63
Douglas Haig
1.07

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par
Douglas Haig+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Douglas Haig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
77%
Gimnasia Y Tiro or Douglas Haig
71%
Draw or Douglas Haig
52%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
22%
Douglas Haig wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
72%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
36%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
13%
Douglas Haig 1+ goals
54%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
18%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
68%
Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

Douglas Haig away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.45 + Douglas Haig defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Douglas Haig attack 0.91 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
48%
level
29%
Douglas Haig scores more
23%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Gimnasia Y Tiro 4–2 Douglas Haig

Gimnasia Y Tiro beat Douglas Haig 4-2 in Torneo Federal A on September 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Gigante del Norte in Salta, Provincia de Salta.