Gimnasia Y Tiro 0–1 Chaco For Ever: Result & Stats

Gimnasia Y Tiro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chaco For Ever

12/5/2021

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - FinalEstadio Juan Pablo Francia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro46%

×Draw30%

Chaco For Ever24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia Y TiroExpected goals in this matchChaco For Ever

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.79

Gimnasia Y Tiro

1.21

Chaco For Ever

0.79

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 42 away

1.45

creates per match

0.95

0.63

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro

1.45

Chaco For Ever

0.95

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro

0.63

Chaco For Ever

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Chaco For Ever →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw

76%

Gimnasia Y Tiro or Chaco For Ever

70%

Draw or Chaco For Ever

54%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+

20%

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals

70%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals

34%

Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals

12%

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals

55%

Chaco For Ever 2+ goals

19%

Chaco For Ever 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)

66%

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.45 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chaco For Ever attack 0.95 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more

46%

level

30%

Chaco For Ever scores more

24%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff