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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
3/19/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 7Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro48%
×Draw30%
Almirante Brown21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.20
Almirante Brown
0.69

Gimnasia Y Tiro creates 74% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.14
Almirante Brown
0.85

allows per match

Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.53
Almirante Brown
1.26

finishing

Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par
Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Y Tiro ↓

Almirante Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
79%
Gimnasia Y Tiro or Almirante Brown
70%
Draw or Almirante Brown
52%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
21%
Almirante Brown wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
70%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
34%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
12%
Almirante Brown 1+ goals
50%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
15%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
69%
Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Y Tiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.53 · 49 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 1.14 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
48%
level
30%
Almirante Brown scores more
21%

Gimnasia Y Tiro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gimnasia Y Tiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Almirante Brown

Gimnasia Y Tiro and Almirante Brown drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on March 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Gigante del Norte in Salta, Provincia de Salta.