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Recreativo do Libolo vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2012

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
3 – 0
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
9/15/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 24Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo40%
×Draw30%
Bravos do Maquis FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.11
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.92

Recreativo do Libolo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 113 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.12
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.96

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.87
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.10

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
70%
Recreativo do Libolo or Bravos do Maquis FC
70%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
60%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
16%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
67%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
30%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
10%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
60%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
23%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
57%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.12 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.96 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
40%
level
30%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
30%

Recreativo do Libolo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Recreativo do Libolo 3 – 0 Bravos do Maquis FC

Recreativo do Libolo beat Bravos do Maquis FC 3-0 in Girabola on September 15, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Calulo.