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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
E. Ferreira 73'
11/2/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 8Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC51%
×Draw29%
Recreativo do Libolo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.32
Recreativo do Libolo
0.73

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 99 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Recreativo do Libolo
0.72

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Recreativo do Libolo
1.34

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
79%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Recreativo do Libolo
71%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
49%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
24%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
73%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
38%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
15%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
52%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
17%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
71%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
51%
level
29%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
21%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
E. Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Bravos do Maquis FC 1–0 Recreativo do Libolo

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Recreativo do Libolo 1-0 in Girabola on November 2, 2024.

Goals: E. Ferreira (73').

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.