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ASA vs 1º de Agosto — Girabola 2012

ASA
ASA
FT
0 – 1
1º de Agosto
1º de Agosto
9/22/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio Cidade Universitária

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ASA20%
×Draw29%
1º de Agosto51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
0.68
1º de Agosto
1.29

1º de Agosto creates 90% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 109 away

creates per match

ASA
0.70
1º de Agosto
1.28

allows per match

ASA
1.30
1º de Agosto
0.66

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

1º de Agosto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASA or draw
49%
ASA or 1º de Agosto
71%
Draw or 1º de Agosto
80%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
5%
1º de Agosto wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
49%
ASA 2+ goals
15%
ASA 3+ goals
3%
1º de Agosto 1+ goals
72%
1º de Agosto 2+ goals
37%
1º de Agosto 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
28%
1º de Agosto (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

1º de Agosto away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 0.70 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

1º de Agosto attack 1.28 + ASA defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ASA scores more
20%
level
29%
1º de Agosto scores more
51%

1º de Agosto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: ASA 0–1 1º de Agosto

1º de Agosto beat ASA 1-0 in Girabola on September 22, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade Universitária.