Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

1º de Agosto vs ASA — Girabola 2025

1º de Agosto
1º de Agosto
FT
4 – 0
ASA
ASA
3/8/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio 11 de Novembro (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

1º de Agosto69%
×Draw22%
ASA9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º de Agosto
1.75
ASA
0.47

1º de Agosto creates 272% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

1º de Agosto
1.83
ASA
0.33

allows per match

1º de Agosto
0.62
ASA
1.67

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw
91%
1º de Agosto or ASA
78%
Draw or ASA
31%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+
41%
ASA wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals
83%
1º de Agosto 2+ goals
52%
1º de Agosto 3+ goals
25%
ASA 1+ goals
37%
ASA 2+ goals
8%
ASA 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)
88%
ASA (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

ASA away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.83 + ASA defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

ASA attack 0.33 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

1º de Agosto scores more
69%
level
22%
ASA scores more
9%

1º de Agosto at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: 1º de Agosto 4–0 ASA

1º de Agosto beat ASA 4-0 in Girabola on March 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro (Luanda).