Gimnasia M. 1–1 San Telmo: Result & Stats

Gimnasia M.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Telmo

2/20/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gimnasia M.49%

×Draw28%

San Telmo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia M.Expected goals in this matchSan Telmo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.85

Gimnasia M.

1.37

San Telmo

0.85

Gimnasia M. creates 61% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 99 away

1.29

creates per match

0.87

0.84

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Gimnasia M.

1.29

San Telmo

0.87

allows per match

Gimnasia M.

0.84

San Telmo

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia M.+0.00on par

San Telmo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia M. ↓

San Telmo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia M. or draw

77%

Gimnasia M. or San Telmo

72%

Draw or San Telmo

51%

Winning margin

Gimnasia M. wins by 2+

24%

San Telmo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gimnasia M. 1+ goals

75%

Gimnasia M. 2+ goals

40%

Gimnasia M. 3+ goals

16%

San Telmo 1+ goals

57%

San Telmo 2+ goals

21%

San Telmo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia M. (draw refunded)

68%

San Telmo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia M. at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 122 matches

San Telmo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia M. attack 1.29 + San Telmo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

San Telmo attack 0.87 + Gimnasia M. defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gimnasia M. scores more

49%

level

28%

San Telmo scores more

23%

Gimnasia M. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gimnasia M. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff