Gimnasia M. 0–1 Defensores De Belgrano

Gimnasia M.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Defensores De Belgrano

2/5/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 1Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Gimnasia M.40%

×Draw31%

Defensores De Belgrano29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia M.Expected goals in this matchDefensores De Belgrano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.90

Gimnasia M.

1.11

Defensores De Belgrano

0.90

Gimnasia M. creates 23% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 128 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

0.84

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Gimnasia M.

1.29

Defensores De Belgrano

0.95

allows per match

Gimnasia M.

0.84

Defensores De Belgrano

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia M.+0.00on par

Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia M. ↓

Defensores De Belgrano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Gimnasia M. or draw

71%

Gimnasia M. or Defensores De Belgrano

69%

Draw or Defensores De Belgrano

60%

Winning margin

Gimnasia M. wins by 2+

17%

Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gimnasia M. 1+ goals

67%

Gimnasia M. 2+ goals

30%

Gimnasia M. 3+ goals

10%

Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals

59%

Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals

23%

Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia M. (draw refunded)

58%

Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia M. at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 122 matches

Defensores De Belgrano away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.93 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia M. attack 1.29 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.95 + Gimnasia M. defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimnasia M. scores more

40%

level

31%

Defensores De Belgrano scores more

29%

Gimnasia M. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimnasia M. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff