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Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs River Plate Res. — Reserve League 2022

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate Res.
River Plate Res.
2/8/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Gimnasia La Plata Res.39%
×Draw27%
River Plate Res.34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.27
River Plate Res.
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

creates per match

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.48
River Plate Res.
1.31

allows per match

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.05
River Plate Res.
1.06

finishing

Gimnasia La Plata Res.+0.00on par
River Plate Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia La Plata Res. ↓

River Plate Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gimnasia La Plata Res. or draw
66%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. or River Plate Res.
73%
Draw or River Plate Res.
61%

Winning margin

Gimnasia La Plata Res. wins by 2+
17%
River Plate Res. wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1+ goals
72%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2+ goals
36%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3+ goals
14%
River Plate Res. 1+ goals
69%
River Plate Res. 2+ goals
33%
River Plate Res. 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia La Plata Res. (draw refunded)
53%
River Plate Res. (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

River Plate Res. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia La Plata Res. attack 1.48 + River Plate Res. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

River Plate Res. attack 1.31 + Gimnasia La Plata Res. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnasia La Plata Res. scores more
39%
level
27%
River Plate Res. scores more
34%

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnasia La Plata Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1 – 1 River Plate Res.

Gimnasia La Plata Res. and River Plate Res. drew 1-1 in Reserve League on February 8, 2024.