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Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. — Reserve League 2022

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
2/28/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Gimnasia La Plata Res.52%
×Draw25%
Atlético Tucumán Res.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.64
Atlético Tucumán Res.
1.01

Gimnasia La Plata Res. creates 62% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 61 away

creates per match

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.48
Atlético Tucumán Res.
0.97

allows per match

Gimnasia La Plata Res.
1.05
Atlético Tucumán Res.
1.79

finishing

Gimnasia La Plata Res.+0.00on par
Atlético Tucumán Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia La Plata Res. ↓

Atlético Tucumán Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gimnasia La Plata Res. or draw
77%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. or Atlético Tucumán Res.
75%
Draw or Atlético Tucumán Res.
48%

Winning margin

Gimnasia La Plata Res. wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Tucumán Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1+ goals
81%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 2+ goals
49%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia La Plata Res. (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Tucumán Res. (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

Atlético Tucumán Res. away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia La Plata Res. attack 1.48 + Atlético Tucumán Res. defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Atlético Tucumán Res. attack 0.97 + Gimnasia La Plata Res. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gimnasia La Plata Res. scores more
52%
level
25%
Atlético Tucumán Res. scores more
23%

Gimnasia La Plata Res. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gimnasia La Plata Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0–1 Atlético Tucumán Res.

Atlético Tucumán Res. beat Gimnasia La Plata Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on February 28, 2024.