Gimnasia L.P. 2–0 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

San Martin S.J.

F. Niell 30'

F. Barcelo 4' (OG)

6/20/2017

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 29Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.41%

×Draw30%

San Martin S.J.30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.94

Gimnasia L.P.

1.16

San Martin S.J.

0.94

Gimnasia L.P. creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

0.77

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

San Martin S.J.

0.77

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

San Martin S.J.

1.25

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

70%

Gimnasia L.P. or San Martin S.J.

70%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

59%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

17%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

69%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

32%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

11%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

61%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

24%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

58%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

41%

level

30%

San Martin S.J. scores more

30%

Gimnasia L.P. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

F. Rinaudo

Gimnasia L.P. · M

7.5

Match Events

4'

F. BarceloOwn goal

12'

Marcos Gelabert

30'

F. Niell↳ N. Ibáñez

33'

E. Montagna← M. Lugo

46'

L. Faravelli← F. Oreja

54'

Lucas Licht

60'

L. Lobos← F. Niell

64'

N. Maná← F. Barcelo

69'

E. Martínez← B. Alemán

79'

N. Pelaitay← M. Gelabert

88'

Fabián Rinaudo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaSan

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots9

2Corners3

25Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target1

5Off Target4

0Blocked4

3Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

333Total Passes451

226Accurate Passes355

68%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

25Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3