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Gimnasia Concepción vs Liniers Bahía Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Gimnasia Concepción
Gimnasia Concepción
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
11/5/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Relegation Play-offs - FinalsEstadio La Perrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Gimnasia Concepción53%
×Draw28%
Liniers Bahía Blanca20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia Concepción
1.38
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.72

Gimnasia Concepción creates 92% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gimnasia Concepción
1.14
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.58

allows per match

Gimnasia Concepción
0.87
Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.61

finishing

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par
Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Concepción ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia Concepción or draw
80%
Gimnasia Concepción or Liniers Bahía Blanca
72%
Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca
47%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+
26%
Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals
75%
Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals
40%
Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals
16%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
51%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
16%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)
73%
Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Concepción at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.87 · 108 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Concepción attack 1.14 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gimnasia Concepción scores more
53%
level
28%
Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
20%

Gimnasia Concepción at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gimnasia Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Gimnasia Concepción 2–0 Liniers Bahía Blanca

Gimnasia Concepción beat Liniers Bahía Blanca 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Perrera in Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe.