Gimhae Jaemics 2–5 Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Gimhae Jaemics

2 – 5

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2/19/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundGimhae Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gimhae Jaemics26%

×Draw17%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimhae JaemicsExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

3.08

Gimhae Jaemics

2.08

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

3.08

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

5.00

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Gimhae Jaemics

1.33

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.17

allows per match

Gimhae Jaemics

5.00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimhae Jaemics+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae Jaemics ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Gimhae Jaemics or draw

43%

Gimhae Jaemics or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

83%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

74%

Winning margin

Gimhae Jaemics wins by 2+

13%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Gimhae Jaemics 1+ goals

87%

Gimhae Jaemics 2+ goals

61%

Gimhae Jaemics 3+ goals

34%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

95%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

81%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Gimhae Jaemics (draw refunded)

31%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gimhae Jaemics at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae Jaemics attack 1.33 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.17 + Gimhae Jaemics defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gimhae Jaemics scores more

26%

level

17%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

57%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff