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Gimhae City vs Seoul United — FA Cup 2019

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
AET
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seoul United
Seoul United
Unknown 115', 87'
M. Rajkovic 100'
Unknown 39'
3/9/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundGimhae Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gimhae City29%
×Draw22%
Seoul United49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
1.50
Seoul United
2.00

Seoul United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.50
Seoul United
1.50

allows per match

Gimhae City
2.50
Seoul United
1.50

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Seoul United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Seoul United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
51%
Gimhae City or Seoul United
78%
Draw or Seoul United
71%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
13%
Seoul United wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
78%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
44%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
19%
Seoul United 1+ goals
86%
Seoul United 2+ goals
59%
Seoul United 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
37%
Seoul United (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Seoul United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.50 + Seoul United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Seoul United attack 1.50 + Gimhae City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gimhae City scores more
29%
level
22%
Seoul United scores more
49%

Seoul United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Seoul United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
87'
100'
M. Rajkovic
115'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Gimhae City 3–1 Seoul United

Gimhae City beat Seoul United 3-1 in FA Cup on March 9, 2022.

Goals: ? (39', 87', 115'), M. Rajkovic (100').

The match was played at Gimhae Civil Stadium in Gimhae.