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Gimhae City vs Pocheon — K3 League 2026

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pocheon
Pocheon
J. Yeo 56'
S. Choi 90'
J. Lee 82', 45'
6/21/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 14Gimhae Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Gimhae City41%
×Draw27%
Pocheon32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
1.35
Pocheon
1.16

Gimhae City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 55 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.55
Pocheon
1.40

allows per match

Gimhae City
0.91
Pocheon
1.15

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Pocheon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Pocheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
68%
Gimhae City or Pocheon
73%
Draw or Pocheon
59%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
19%
Pocheon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
74%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
39%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
15%
Pocheon 1+ goals
69%
Pocheon 2+ goals
32%
Pocheon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
56%
Pocheon (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Pocheon away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.55 + Pocheon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pocheon attack 1.40 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gimhae City scores more
41%
level
27%
Pocheon scores more
32%

Gimhae City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
J. Lee
56'
J. Yeo
82'
J. Lee
90+9'
S. Choi
90'
S. Choi
Gimhae
Pocheon
Son Hyun-Joon
Manager: Son Hyun-Joon
Kim Jun-Tae
Manager: Kim Jun-Tae

K3 League: Gimhae City 1–2 Pocheon

Pocheon beat Gimhae City 2-1 in K3 League on June 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Lee (45', 82'), J. Yeo (56'), S. Choi (90').

The match was played at Gimhae Sports Complex in Gimhae.