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Gimhae City vs Jeonju — K3 League 2026

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jeonju
Jeonju
5/23/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 2Gimhae Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gimhae City52%
×Draw26%
Jeonju22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
1.50
Jeonju
0.87

Gimhae City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.54
Jeonju
0.82

allows per match

Gimhae City
0.92
Jeonju
1.45

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Jeonju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
78%
Gimhae City or Jeonju
74%
Draw or Jeonju
48%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
27%
Jeonju wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
78%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
44%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
19%
Jeonju 1+ goals
58%
Jeonju 2+ goals
22%
Jeonju 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
70%
Jeonju (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.92 · 103 matches

Jeonju away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.54 + Jeonju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jeonju attack 0.82 + Gimhae City defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gimhae City scores more
52%
level
26%
Jeonju scores more
22%

Gimhae City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimhae City vs Jeonju

Gimhae City beat Jeonju 2-1 in K3 League on May 23, 2020.

The match was played at Gimhae Civil Stadium in Gimhae.