Gimhae City 2–2 Jeonbuk Motors II: Result & Stats

Gimhae City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonbuk Motors II

Lee Jung-Ho 84'

Kim Chang-Dae 80'

Hwang Seung-jun 90'

S. Eom 59'

7/6/2025

K3 League · Round 16Gimhae Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Gimhae City64%

×Draw21%

Jeonbuk Motors II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimhae CityExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.82

Gimhae City

1.95

Jeonbuk Motors II

0.82

Gimhae City creates 138% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 23 away

1.55

creates per match

0.74

0.91

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Gimhae City

1.55

Jeonbuk Motors II

0.74

allows per match

Gimhae City

0.91

Jeonbuk Motors II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Jeonbuk Motors II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw

85%

Gimhae City or Jeonbuk Motors II

79%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors II

36%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+

39%

Jeonbuk Motors II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals

86%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

58%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

31%

Jeonbuk Motors II 1+ goals

56%

Jeonbuk Motors II 2+ goals

20%

Jeonbuk Motors II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

81%

Jeonbuk Motors II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Jeonbuk Motors II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.55 + Jeonbuk Motors II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.95

Jeonbuk Motors II attack 0.74 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gimhae City scores more

64%

level

21%

Jeonbuk Motors II scores more

15%

Gimhae City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

S. Eom

80'

Kim Chang-Dae

84'

Lee Jung-Ho

90'

Hwang Seung-jun

Gimhae

Jeonbuk

Manager: Son Hyun-Joon

Manager: An Dae-Hyun