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Gimhae City vs Geoje Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
3/23/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundGimhae Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gimhae City40%
×Draw20%
Geoje Citizen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
2.13
Geoje Citizen
2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.50
Geoje Citizen
1.75

allows per match

Gimhae City
2.50
Geoje Citizen
2.75

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
60%
Gimhae City or Geoje Citizen
80%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
60%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
22%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
88%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
63%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
35%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
88%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
63%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
50%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.50 + Geoje Citizen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Geoje Citizen attack 1.75 + Gimhae City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimhae City scores more
40%
level
20%
Geoje Citizen scores more
40%

Gimhae City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimhae City vs Geoje Citizen

Gimhae City and Geoje Citizen drew 1-1 in FA Cup on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Gimhae Sports Complex in Gimhae.