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Gimhae City vs Gangneung City — K3 League 2026

Gimhae City
Gimhae City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gangneung City
Gangneung City
Cho Hyang-Gi 90' (pen)
Kim Chang-Dae 76'
8/16/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 20Gimhae Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Gimhae City47%
×Draw27%
Gangneung City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimhae City
1.43
Gangneung City
1.00

Gimhae City creates 43% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 107 away

creates per match

Gimhae City
1.55
Gangneung City
1.08

allows per match

Gimhae City
0.91
Gangneung City
1.31

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par
Gangneung City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Gangneung City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw
74%
Gimhae City or Gangneung City
73%
Draw or Gangneung City
53%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+
23%
Gangneung City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals
76%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
42%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
17%
Gangneung City 1+ goals
63%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
26%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)
64%
Gangneung City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Gangneung City away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.55 + Gangneung City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gangneung City attack 1.08 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gimhae City scores more
47%
level
27%
Gangneung City scores more
26%

Gimhae City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
Kim Chang-Dae
90'
Cho Hyang-GiPenalty
Gimhae
Gangneung
Son Hyun-Joon
Manager: Son Hyun-Joon
Kim Do-Keun
Manager: Kim Do-Keun

Gimhae City 2 – 0 Gangneung City

Gimhae City beat Gangneung City 2-0 in K3 League on August 16, 2025.

Goals: Kim Chang-Dae (76'), Cho Hyang-Gi (90' pen).

The match was played at Gimhae Sports Complex.