Gimhae City 1–0 Daejeon Korail: Result & Stats

Gimhae City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Daejeon Korail

8/13/2022

K3 League · Round 22Gimhae Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Gimhae City45%

×Draw26%

Daejeon Korail28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimhae CityExpected goals in this matchDaejeon Korail

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.09

Gimhae City

1.45

Daejeon Korail

1.09

Gimhae City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 113 away

1.54

creates per match

1.27

0.92

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Gimhae City

1.54

Daejeon Korail

1.27

allows per match

Gimhae City

0.92

Daejeon Korail

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Daejeon Korail →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw

72%

Gimhae City or Daejeon Korail

74%

Draw or Daejeon Korail

55%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+

22%

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals

77%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

42%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

18%

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals

66%

Daejeon Korail 2+ goals

30%

Daejeon Korail 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

61%

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.92 · 103 matches

Daejeon Korail away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.54 + Daejeon Korail defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Daejeon Korail attack 1.27 + Gimhae City defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gimhae City scores more

45%

level

26%

Daejeon Korail scores more

28%

Gimhae City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff