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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seoul E-Land FC — K League 2 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Seoul E-Land FC
Seoul E-Land FC
11/26/2023K League 2K League 2 · Round 39Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC52%
×Draw25%
Seoul E-Land FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.63
Seoul E-Land FC
0.99

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 152 away

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.94
Seoul E-Land FC
1.21

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
0.78
Seoul E-Land FC
1.31

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Seoul E-Land FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw
77%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Seoul E-Land FC
75%
Draw or Seoul E-Land FC
48%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
28%
Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
80%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
48%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
22%
Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals
63%
Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals
26%
Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
69%
Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Seoul E-Land FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.31 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.94 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.63

Seoul E-Land FC attack 1.21 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Seoul E-Land FC scores more
23%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seoul E-Land FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Seoul E-Land FC 1-0 in K League 2 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.