Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen — K League 1 2026
Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 67+ matches
Gimcheon Sangmu FC38%
Daejeon Citizen36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 119 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches
Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40
Daejeon Citizen attack 1.52 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Daejeon Citizen on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 05:00. The match is part of the K League 1 2026/2027 season.
Preview: Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Daejeon Citizen
October 24, 2026: Gimcheon Sangmu FC take on Daejeon Citizen in K League 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Daejeon Citizen at Gimcheon Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.